inside politics

Election 2026/7 Resource: DA Turnout | Ekurhuleni | By Ward

Explanation:

These are called “scatter graphs”. They show ANC or DA turnout by ward, in a given metro. So the first thing to understand is that they do not show party support, although that is of course a key driver of turnout. Essentially they are a measure of enthusiasm among supporters.

Each metro has five scatter graphs that shows ANC or DA turnout by ward for each local government election year, as well as one combined scatter graph upfront, which shows all years. At the end, there is a timelapse video of all six graphs, which helps identify movement patterns.

Each dot represents a ward and is calculated by dividing either the ANC’s or DA’s total valid PR votes in that ward, by the total registered voting population in that ward. I have also included a line in each graph, to demonstrate where the general turnout average across all parties was in the metro, for a given year.

So, each graph tells you four things:

1. What general turnout was like (enthusiasm across all parties).
2. How ANC or DA turnout compared to general turnout (how enthusiastic ANC or DA voters were in particular).
3. How ANC or DA turnout in that year, compared to other years.
4. How ANC or DA turnout faired in bigger and smaller wards (number of registered voters).

If a lot of dots fall on or above the average turnout line, that means ANC or DA voters were very enthusiastic. If they fall below the average turnout line, that means ANC or DA voters were very apathetic. But of, course, you should also look at where the average turnout line sits, because even if the ANC or DA votes match it, it might be dropping, meaning a general apathy that effects all parties.

The ANC’s and DA’s turnout percentage runs up the Y-axis, and the size of the ward (in terms of registered voters) runs along the X-axis. So, what you want as a political party are dots up and towards the right-hand corner (big ward/high turnout).

DA Turnout: Ekurhuleni | All Wards | All Years (2000-2021)

DA Turnout: Ekurhuleni | All Wards [88] | 2000

DA Turnout: Ekurhuleni | All Wards [88] | 2006

DA Turnout: Ekurhuleni | All Wards [101] | 2011

DA Turnout: Ekurhuleni | All Wards [112] | 2016

DA Turnout: Ekurhuleni | All Wards [112] | 2021

Timelapse