What follows is an in-depth overview of the Social Research Foundation’s (SRF) polling (conducted by Victory Research, of which I am the CEO), ahead of the 2026 local government elections. The SRF has been kind enough to let me apply my mind to it publicly.
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A ward-by-ward visual analysis of the Johannesburg on-the-ground campaigns of the DA mayoral candidate Helen Zille and ASA candidate Herman Mashaba. Which campaign has been most effective in terms of reach, events and energy?
Read the rest of this entry »A outline of the methodology that underpins the essay “Election 2026 [18] A ward-by-ward comparison of Zille’s and Mashaba’s JHB campaigns”
Read the rest of this entry »A look at: 1. The performance of the UFC in 2024 (and that of its component parts), 2. Whether it achieved its objectives (of securing ANC votes and not fragmenting the opposition) and, 3. To try and establish some parameters for its prospects in 2026.
Read the rest of this entry »Herman Mashaba says he believes ASA will win half the wards in Soweto outright. This analysis is designed to see what that would take in real terms, by isolating those wards that comprise Soweto, and comparing the results there between the 2016 and 2021 local elections, before determining what that all means for ASA’s potential.
Read the rest of this entry »This is the second in a two part series. Here I will outline the most plausible scenarios for the DA to obtain 50% in Johannesburg, using the method and tools set out in Part 1.
Read the rest of this entry »This is the first in a two part series, that sets out the methodological ground work for Part II. Here I will establish the numbers and method used to generate plausible 50% scenarios for the DA in Johannesburg. In Part II, I will focus on the outcomes of this process.
Read the rest of this entry »An in-depth look at Action South Africa’s prospects in the 2026 elections, with a particular focus on its electoral record in Johannesburg. The metro constitutes something of a double-edged sword for ASA, both its greatest strength, and greatest weakness, as it looks to expand.
Read the rest of this entry »Here I explain what a turnout track is and how it works, with a view to producing a range of these graphs for the Resources Page. Their most powerful insight is comparative, allowing us to see a turnout differential between two parties.
Read the rest of this entry »A look at the voters’ roll, its relationship to election turnout, the manner in which it has fluctuated over time and what that means. All of which sets the scene for 2026/7 and emphasises just how critical the two registration weekends that will precede the next election are to political parties generally, and the opposition in particular.
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