This is the second in a two part series. Here I will outline the most plausible scenarios for the DA to obtain 50% in Johannesburg, using the method and tools set out in Part 1.
Read the rest of this entry »This is the first in a two part series, that sets out the methodological ground work for Part II. Here I will establish the numbers and method used to generate plausible 50% scenarios for the DA in Johannesburg. In Part II, I will focus on the outcomes of this process.
Read the rest of this entry »An in-depth look at Action South Africa’s prospects in the 2026 elections, with a particular focus on its electoral record in Johannesburg. The metro constitutes something of a double-edged sword for ASA, both its greatest strength, and greatest weakness, as it looks to expand.
Read the rest of this entry »Here I explain what a turnout track is and how it works, with a view to producing a range of these graphs for the Resources Page. Their most powerful insight is comparative, allowing us to see a turnout differential between two parties.
Read the rest of this entry »A look at the voters’ roll, its relationship to election turnout, the manner in which it has fluctuated over time and what that means. All of which sets the scene for 2026/7 and emphasises just how critical the two registration weekends that will precede the next election are to political parties generally, and the opposition in particular.
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