inside politics

Analysis of and commentary on South African politics.

Month: March, 2026

4 March 2026

Election 2026/7 [17] Did Unite for Change capture ANC voters in 2024?

A look at: 1. The performance of the UFC in 2024 (and that of its component parts), 2. Whether it achieved its objectives (of securing ANC votes and not fragmenting the opposition) and, 3. To try and establish some parameters for its prospects in 2026.

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1 March 2026

Election 2026/7 [16] Can ASA win half the wards in Soweto?

Herman Mashaba says he believes ASA will win half the wards in Soweto outright. This analysis is designed to see what that would take in real terms, by isolating those wards that comprise Soweto, and comparing the results there between the 2016 and 2021 local elections, before determining what that all means for ASA’s potential.