inside politics
Analysis of and commentary on South African politics.
Category: 2026 Local Elections
9 December 2025
Election 2026/7 [10] Fragmentation: The most powerful force in Gauteng
We have looked, in detail, at turnout trends, which will be a determining factor in the next elections. The other primary force – perhaps even more impactful than turnout – is fragmentation: the degree to which the ANC’s and DA’s vote share has split since 2011. Back then, those two parties had a monopoly on the metro vote. Since then, both the number of “Other Parties” and their combined vote share, has exploded.
Read the rest of this entry »1 December 2025
Election 2026/7 [9] Johannesburg and the dire state of the ANC and DA engine rooms
An in-depth look at the ANC and DA strongholds in Johannesburg, and how they have performed over time. This essay relies on a series of heat maps, which illustrate ANC and DA support and, mapped over time, demonstrate the role these strongholds have played and where they stand, ahead of the next election.
Read the rest of this entry »27 November 2025
Election 2026/7 [8] Turnout, Cape Town, the ANC and DA
A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Cape Town, with a focus on the ANC and DA. The DA’s urban stronghold, which boasted a 66% majority at one stage, now sits in the 50% bracket. The ANC has faded away into obscurity and, in its wake, the rise of smaller parties, along with declining turnout, would now seem to pose the biggest threat to the DA’s dominance.
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