inside politics

Analysis of and commentary on South African politics.

Category: Gauteng

9 December 2025

Election 2026/7 [10] Fragmentation: The most powerful force in Gauteng


We have looked, in detail, at turnout trends, which will be a determining factor in the next elections. The other primary force – perhaps even more impactful than turnout – is fragmentation: the degree to which the ANC’s and DA’s vote share has split since 2011. Back then, those two parties had a monopoly on the metro vote. Since then, both the number of “Other Parties” and their combined vote share, has exploded.

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3 October 2025

Election 2026/7 [3] Turnout, Ekurhuleni, the ANC and DA


A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Ekurhuleni, with a focus on the ANC and DA. The ANC’s support appears to be in an exponential decline and, as a result, the DA needs only the smallest differential turnout advantage to make a profound impact. But the turnout trends are not on the DA’s side, and it is going to require something special.

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23 September 2025

Election 2026/7 [2] Turnout, Tshwane, the ANC and DA


A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Tshwane, with a focus on the ANC and DA. All-in-all, a marginally better picture for the ANC and DA, but that is only relative to Johannesburg. Both parties have serious problems, and it would seem like higher turnout is the only way either are going to solve them.

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10 September 2025

Election 2026/7 [1] Turnout, Johannesburg, the ANC and DA


A comprehensive look at turnout trends, starting nationally and moving to Johannesburg, with a focus on the ANC and DA. All indications are the ANC is in terminal decline, a problem exacerbated by low turnout; however, the DA has problems of its own on this front, and few places make the case better than Johannesburg.

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10 April 2024

Election 2024 [14]: The Action South Africa bullshit monster


Thread: “The Action South Africa bullshit monster” This thread looks at Herman Mashaba’s spin on ASA’s 2021 election results, explains his hostility towards market research, and sets out how the media have uncritically facilitated his deceit.

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7 February 2024

Election 2024 [10] Scenarios: Can the ANC avoid falling below 50% in Gauteng?


A thread: “Can the ANC avoid falling below 50% in Gauteng?” This thread looks at approximately 350 Gauteng turnout scenarios, with a view to determining how easy or difficult it is the for ANC to get over 50%.

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