inside politics
Analysis of and commentary on South African politics.
Tag: Turnout
7 February 2026
Election 2026/7 [14] Developing a turnout track, using Johannesburg
Here I explain what a turnout track is and how it works, with a view to producing a range of these graphs for the Resources Page. Their most powerful insight is comparative, allowing us to see a turnout differential between two parties.
Read the rest of this entry »2 February 2026
Election 2026/7 [11] A brief history of the voters’ roll
A look at the voters’ roll, its relationship to election turnout, the manner in which it has fluctuated over time and what that means. All of which sets the scene for 2026/7 and emphasises just how critical the two registration weekends that will precede the next election are to political parties generally, and the opposition in particular.
Read the rest of this entry »27 November 2025
Election 2026/7 [8] Turnout, Cape Town, the ANC and DA
A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Cape Town, with a focus on the ANC and DA. The DA’s urban stronghold, which boasted a 66% majority at one stage, now sits in the 50% bracket. The ANC has faded away into obscurity and, in its wake, the rise of smaller parties, along with declining turnout, would now seem to pose the biggest threat to the DA’s dominance.
Read the rest of this entry »13 November 2025
Election 2026/7 [7] Turnout, Buffalo City, the ANC and DA
A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Buffalo City, with a focus on the ANC and DA. Historical data suggests Buffalo City is the one metro where the ANC has a credible path to 50%. That is not to say it is a likely path, but a path none-the-less. Its enemy here is apathy, as it is everywhere, only the DA is far less of a concern.
Read the rest of this entry »27 October 2025
Election 2026/7 [6] Turnout, Nelson Mandela Bay, the ANC and DA
A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Nelson Mandela Bay, with a focus on the ANC and DA. Both the ANC and the DA are decline here. Both had the potential for a 50% majority but, the data suggests, no more. Rather, what we are seeing is an attritional fight between the two for diminishing returns, and only more voter enthusiasm will solve that.
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