A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Nelson Mandela Bay, with a focus on the ANC and DA. Both the ANC and the DA are decline here. Both had the potential for a 50% majority but, the data suggests, no more. Rather, what we are seeing is an attritional fight between the two for diminishing returns, and only more voter enthusiasm will solve that.
Read the rest of this entry »A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Mangaung, with a focus on the ANC and DA. The ANC is still in decline here, but there is no cliff its support has fallen off, at least not yet – more a slow, gradual erosion. As of 2024, the party is still above 50% in the metro, just, but all indications are this ANC majority will fall too, in the near future.
Read the rest of this entry »A comprehensive look at turnout trends in eThekwini, with a focus on the ANC and DA. eThekwini is arguably South Africa’s most dramatic metro: broad competition, huge swings in support and thus, a very volatile political landscape. And it is in the middle of exactly such an upheaval with, it seems, much more to come.
Read the rest of this entry »A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Ekurhuleni, with a focus on the ANC and DA. The ANC’s support appears to be in an exponential decline and, as a result, the DA needs only the smallest differential turnout advantage to make a profound impact. But the turnout trends are not on the DA’s side, and it is going to require something special.
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