Election 2026/7 Resource: Turnout Differentials | ANC/DA

by The Editor

Election 2026/7 Resource: Turnout Differentials | ANC/DA

Explanation:

These graphs measure what is called a “turnout differential”. A turnout differential is a comparative score – in this case, between the ANC’s or DA’s performance on the provincial ballot (in national and provincial elections) and its performance on the PR ballot (in local government elections).

Each dot on the graph represents the difference in that party’s support, in a given metro, between the preceding provincial election, and the next local election. If the dot is positive (and above 0) it means that party does better in local elections. If the score is negative, it means that party does better in provincial elections.

As a general rule, the DA does better in local elections (because its voters are relatively enthusiastic about local elections) – so its dots are mostly positive and above 0; and the ANC does worse in local elections (because its voters are relatively less enthusiastic about local elections) – and so its dots are mostly negative and below 0 (see Overall Turnout for more).

By tracking these scores over time, we can see the following:

The size of the turnout differential for each party (if it is growing or shrinking).
The gap between the two party’s scores (if it is big and growing, one party will likely have an advantage over the other in the future; if it is small and shrinking, both parties will likely be on an equal footing, in terms of voter enthusiasm, in the future).
A trend line, which, gives a general indication (not a prediction) as to where a party’s turnout differential is headed in the future, based on hsitorical trends.

Turnout Differential: National and all metros | ANC