inside politics
Analysis of and commentary on South African politics.
Category: African National Congress [ANC]
18 February 2026
Election 2026/7 [15] Action South Africa’s prospects in JHB
An in-depth look at Action South Africa’s prospects in the 2026 elections, with a particular focus on its electoral record in Johannesburg. The metro constitutes something of a double-edged sword for ASA, both its greatest strength, and greatest weakness, as it looks to expand.
Read the rest of this entry »7 February 2026
Election 2026/7 [14] Developing a turnout track, using Johannesburg
Here I explain what a turnout track is and how it works, with a view to producing a range of these graphs for the Resources Page. Their most powerful insight is comparative, allowing us to see a turnout differential between two parties.
Read the rest of this entry »2 February 2026
Election 2026/7 [11] A brief history of the voters’ roll
A look at the voters’ roll, its relationship to election turnout, the manner in which it has fluctuated over time and what that means. All of which sets the scene for 2026/7 and emphasises just how critical the two registration weekends that will precede the next election are to political parties generally, and the opposition in particular.
Read the rest of this entry »9 December 2025
Election 2026/7 [10] Fragmentation: The most powerful force in Gauteng
We have looked, in detail, at turnout trends, which will be a determining factor in the next elections. The other primary force – perhaps even more impactful than turnout – is fragmentation: the degree to which the ANC’s and DA’s vote share has split since 2011. Back then, those two parties had a monopoly on the metro vote. Since then, both the number of “Other Parties” and their combined vote share, has exploded.
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