inside politics
Analysis of and commentary on South African politics.
Category: Democratic Alliance
9 December 2025
Election 2026/7 [10] Fragmentation: The most powerful force in Gauteng
We have looked, in detail, at turnout trends, which will be a determining factor in the next elections. The other primary force – perhaps even more impactful than turnout – is fragmentation: the degree to which the ANC’s and DA’s vote share has split since 2011. Back then, those two parties had a monopoly on the metro vote. Since then, both the number of “Other Parties” and their combined vote share, has exploded.
Read the rest of this entry »1 December 2025
Election 2026/7 [9] Johannesburg and the dire state of the ANC and DA engine rooms
An in-depth look at the ANC and DA strongholds in Johannesburg, and how they have performed over time. This essay relies on a series of heat maps, which illustrate ANC and DA support and, mapped over time, demonstrate the role these strongholds have played and where they stand, ahead of the next election.
Read the rest of this entry »27 November 2025
Election 2026/7 [8] Turnout, Cape Town, the ANC and DA
A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Cape Town, with a focus on the ANC and DA. The DA’s urban stronghold, which boasted a 66% majority at one stage, now sits in the 50% bracket. The ANC has faded away into obscurity and, in its wake, the rise of smaller parties, along with declining turnout, would now seem to pose the biggest threat to the DA’s dominance.
Read the rest of this entry »13 November 2025
Election 2026/7 [7] Turnout, Buffalo City, the ANC and DA
A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Buffalo City, with a focus on the ANC and DA. Historical data suggests Buffalo City is the one metro where the ANC has a credible path to 50%. That is not to say it is a likely path, but a path none-the-less. Its enemy here is apathy, as it is everywhere, only the DA is far less of a concern.
Read the rest of this entry »27 October 2025
Election 2026/7 [6] Turnout, Nelson Mandela Bay, the ANC and DA
A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Nelson Mandela Bay, with a focus on the ANC and DA. Both the ANC and the DA are decline here. Both had the potential for a 50% majority but, the data suggests, no more. Rather, what we are seeing is an attritional fight between the two for diminishing returns, and only more voter enthusiasm will solve that.
Read the rest of this entry »21 October 2025
Election 2026/7 [5] Turnout, Mangaung, the ANC and DA
A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Mangaung, with a focus on the ANC and DA. The ANC is still in decline here, but there is no cliff its support has fallen off, at least not yet – more a slow, gradual erosion. As of 2024, the party is still above 50% in the metro, just, but all indications are this ANC majority will fall too, in the near future.
Read the rest of this entry »14 October 2025
Election 2026/7 [4] Turnout, eThekwini, the ANC and DA
A comprehensive look at turnout trends in eThekwini, with a focus on the ANC and DA. eThekwini is arguably South Africa’s most dramatic metro: broad competition, huge swings in support and thus, a very volatile political landscape. And it is in the middle of exactly such an upheaval with, it seems, much more to come.
Read the rest of this entry »3 October 2025
Election 2026/7 [3] Turnout, Ekurhuleni, the ANC and DA
A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Ekurhuleni, with a focus on the ANC and DA. The ANC’s support appears to be in an exponential decline and, as a result, the DA needs only the smallest differential turnout advantage to make a profound impact. But the turnout trends are not on the DA’s side, and it is going to require something special.
Read the rest of this entry »23 September 2025
Election 2026/7 [2] Turnout, Tshwane, the ANC and DA
A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Tshwane, with a focus on the ANC and DA. All-in-all, a marginally better picture for the ANC and DA, but that is only relative to Johannesburg. Both parties have serious problems, and it would seem like higher turnout is the only way either are going to solve them.
Read the rest of this entry »10 September 2025
Election 2026/7 [1] Turnout, Johannesburg, the ANC and DA
A comprehensive look at turnout trends, starting nationally and moving to Johannesburg, with a focus on the ANC and DA. All indications are the ANC is in terminal decline, a problem exacerbated by low turnout; however, the DA has problems of its own on this front, and few places make the case better than Johannesburg.
Read the rest of this entry »23 April 2025
Public perceptions on Kill the Boer
The Social Research Foundation (SRF) recently commissioned a short, nationally representative survey on public perceptions around free speech, hate speech and the song Kill the Boer. The survey was conducted by Victory Research (of which I am the CEO). The SRF was kind enough to let me set out the findings. What follows is a summary of the key insights.
2 July 2024
Election 2024 [16]: Full demographic profiles of ANC, DA, MK, EFF and IFP support
Thread: “Full demographic profiles of ANC, DA, MK, EFF and IFP”. Mapping the support of each party by age, employment status, monthly income, residential area, population group, educational level, first language, province and gender.
Read the rest of this entry »24 June 2024
Election 2024 [15]: Mapping ANC, DA, MK and EFF support by race
Thread: “Mapping ANC, DA, MK and EFF support by race” This thread maps the 2024 Election support for the big four political parties – the ANC, DA, MK and EFF – by race, with an emphasis on Black voters, how they are distributed and the degree to which they turned out.
Read the rest of this entry »26 January 2024
Election 2024 [8] What are the electoral politics of the Multi-Party Charter?
A thread: “What are the electoral politics of the MPC?” This thread looks at the electoral implications of the MPC, the political capital involved for each member, as well as the risks for smaller parties, when joining a coalition government.
Read the rest of this entry »24 January 2024
Election 2024 [7] What would happen if Rise Mzansi, the PA, BOSA and ASA achieved their election goals?
A thread: “What would happen if Rise Mzansi, the PA, BOSA and ASA achieved their election goals? This thread looks at the 2024 election predictions made by these parties, and what they would mean in real terms, if they ever came to pass.
Read the rest of this entry »14 June 2018
The media’s short-sighted hostility to the DA’s 2009 ‘Stop Zuma’ campaign
I am going to try and post to Inside Politics more often. One way of doing that, relatively easily for me, is to post some of the many archives I have produced over the years, perhaps with a bit of analysis upfront. Here follows an example: a collection of quotes from the commentariat on the DA’s 2009 ‘Stop Zuma’ posters, which were widely derided as evidence of fearmongering, poor strategy and the unfair personalisation of the election. With the benefit of hindsight, of course, the campaign and the message were clearly both important and prescient. The DA’s message is often overlooked in favour of such considerations as style and tone. Nothing makes the case better than the story of the ‘Stop Zuma’ posters.
16 July 2013
King Dalindyebo Sentence: Full Document
I have uploaded to Inside Politics the full sentence handed down by the High Court in Mthatha Eastern Cape on 4 December 2009, against King Dalindyebo, who recently joined the DA as a member – a move DA Eastern Cape Leader Athol Trollip said he was “proud” of. You can find it by clicking here. This is just the 20 page sentence, I hope to have the full judgment by the end of the day. In the sentence, the King is sentenced to 15 years jail time for, among other things: arson, assault with intent to do grievous bodily harm, kidnapping and culpable homicide. The sentence is a damning indictment of the King, and worth reading in full. No doubt the judgement will be equally harsh. There is no statement I can find anywhere on record of the DA ever having had condemned the King, his conduct or the sentence, despite the fact that he draws a public salary.
16 May 2013
A poor DA statement that misrepresents the facts
FEATURE: The DA today released a statement severely criticising the Minister of Sport for the amount to be spent on the 2013 South African Sports Awards ceremony. But, while the total has increased, the amount of public money allocated has actually decreased. The DA seems to have ignored this fact, however, and slammed the Minister regardless. It’s a good example of bad news triumphing over good and a disingenuous position as a result.
17 April 2013
An erosion of the DA’s liberal values: A response
FEATURE: Some two months ago I argued that an article by the DA’s national spokesperson, advocating for Ubuntu and ‘Africaness’, was illiberal and worrisome, with regards to the party’s ideological direction. Although the DA itself has not responded, a number of other people have. Below is a summation of those responses and the reasons why the majority are both wrong and wrongheaded.
28 February 2013
The DA’s illiberal response to Lulu Xingwana
FEATURE: The DA yesterday called on the Human Rights Commission to investigate Lulu Xingwana for comments it deemed “offensive”. That, however, is an intolerant and illiberal response. To try and formally shut down an opinion you no more than disagree with is anathema to free speech, a touchstone liberal principle. Anyone can speak out against a view they deem to be wrong or damaging in some way, but when you try formally to prohibit or ban a disagreeable opinion, you have crossed a line liberals should protect not abuse.
12 February 2013
Mamphela Ramphele and the triumph of narcissism over strategy
FEATURE: Mamphela Ramphele is due to make a significant announcement on Monday. All indications are she will announce, at least, the framework for a new political party; no doubt with her at the helm. If she does, it will represent the triumph of ego over sound political analysis and, as a result, the indulgence of narcissism above South Africa’s best interests. That, and a failure to learn from history. Here is why.
23 January 2013
An erosion of the DA’s liberal values 2?
FEATURE: Two days ago I wrote an opinion piece on the DA and the extent to which collectivist ideas and archetypes – Ubuntu and ‘Africaness’ in particular – were becoming increasingly well-entrenched in its language; that it had failed to define those ideas and that they were in conflict with its core liberal beliefs. That opinion has been met by no official response from the DA, signalling either agreement or a politically expedient silence. To further make my case, a transcript of a radio interview with the national spokesperson adds further weight to my argument. Seeing as the DA is unwilling to debate the matter, cased closed, I would say.
21 January 2013
An erosion of the DA’s liberal values?
FEATURE: In yesterday’s Sunday Times, DA national spokesperson Mmusi Maimane wrote an article which, while attempting to advocate against stereotyping, ended up doing exactly that; seemingly the reflection of his own personal views about ‘Africaness’, Ubuntu and the inherent characteristics of ‘Africans’. It is troubling and indicative of a broader challenge facing the party: how best to safeguard its core beliefs and values without pandering to ‘identity politics’ and group identity.
6 January 2013
Goodbye DA, hello future
As this is a new year, it seems appropriate I start it off with a new beginning. Although not directly relevant to this site, which I have always run in my personal capacity, after 12 or so years with the DA I felt it best, as they say, to move on to other things; and so, from 1 January 2013, I made that decision and am no longer working for the party. I shall continue to keep Inside Politics running and we shall see what the future holds. So, expect some exciting, new articles, starting tomorrow and included amongst them some very interesting subjects I think deserve a bit more public attention. Thanks to all the friends I made; to them and everyone else, see you somewhere in the great debate that is South Africa’s future. Goodnight, and good luck.
2 September 2012
On moral outrage and bad journalism
FEATURE: In late 2010 the DA removed Sowetan journalist Anna Majavu from its mailing lists. In 2011, the mainstream press found out and the response, fuelled by the ANC, was so hysterical looking back it puts the outcry over The Spear in a whole different light. We seem to specialise in hysteria and moral outrage in South Africa. In the 2011 article below, I responded to all the vitriol and tried to put the decision in its proper perspective. I note with some irony that today the DA is still around, Anna Majavu, however, has abandoned South Africa for Australia.
2 September 2012
How personal bias corrupts ‘expert’ opinion
FEATURE: The Erasmus Commission was set up by the former ANC Premier of the Western Cape, Ebrahim Rasool, to probe the allegation that the DA-led coalition in the City of Cape Town – and Cape Town Mayor and DA leader Helen Zille in particular – had improperly used public funds to spy on their political opponents, despite the City having initiated an independent investigation into the matter, which cleared the administration and the DA of any wrongdoing. It was, after the City of Cape Town took it to court, found to be unlawful, as the DA had argued all along. Not so Pierre de Vos, however, despite being a ‘legal expert’ almost everything he said about the commission was wrong. The reason: a particular bias he holds for politicians, Helen Zille and the DA, which rendered his ability properly to analyse what was happening null and void. Here a 2008 article showing how.
2 September 2012
Small, smaller, smallest: The decline of SA’s minority parties
FEATURE: What follows is a brief 2009 election overview of the results of the five more established smaller parties: the African Christian Democratic Party, Freedom Front Plus, United Democratic Movement, Independent Democrats and the Inkatha Freedom Party. Outside of the ANC, DA and COPE, they constitute the five next biggest (or smallest) parties in the National Assembly. It suggests that, come 2014, there is little point to them standing in every province. Doing so might allow them the pretense of being ‘national’ but, in reality, their results are so poor as to render it a foolish exercise.
2 September 2012
The logical errors of Pierre de Vos
FEATURE: When personal bias fuels analysis, as opposed to facts and evidence, inevitably one falls prey to logical error – because reason does not support your position, you are forced to rely on illogical claims. In the article below, written in 2008, I look at some of the logical mistakes made in an argument put forward by Pierre de Vos, about Helen’s Zille’s opposition to the establishment of the Erasmus Commission. Ultimately, the Commission was found to be unlawful by the courts but, at the time, de Vos was convinced the Democratic Alliance was hiding something. The result was a rather messy argument.
2 August 2012
Journalism 101: 1st Check facts; 2nd Write opinion
FEATURE: Chris Gibbons has written for the Daily Maverick an article which revolves around a central premise that is completely wrong. Thus, the whole article is wrong; likewise, all the conclusions he draws from it are wrongheaded. It’s a good example of poor journalism, not merely because the facts are all over the place, but because it relies so heavily on clichéd ideas that, given a moments consideration, are revealed to be flawed. Here is my response.
19 June 2012
VIDEO: A Youth Wage Subsidy now!
VIDEO: Here is a great video from the DA Youth, explaining what a Youth Wage Subsidy is and the difference it would make to the lives of young, unemployed South Africans. I am not sure why it has not been more widely circulated but it is well worth a look at. Some good interviews with some people affected and shots of the DA rally in favour of the subsidy, which Cosatu reduced to a violent and bloody mess. Check it out.
14 June 2012
The DA’s 2006 bill to hold unions accountable
SERIES: The instantaneous and dramatic nature of current affairs lends itself to a kind of historical amnesia, one where the captivating nature of those things unfolding today, causes one to forget the bigger picture. From the Archives aims to put forward the odd reminder that, more often than not, history is merely repeating itself. In all likelihood, somewhere, someone has already experienced and commented on those all-consuming issues that appear to have materialised only yesterday. Today, the DA’s 2006 Private Members Bill designed to hold unions accountable for any damage caused during striking, an idea recently endorsed by the Constitutional Court.
11 June 2012
How the WC Office of the Premier scored best in PSC report
FEATURE: The Public Service Commission recently published a report assessing the performance of the nine Offices of the Premier. The only Office of the Premier not run by the ANC – in the Western Cape – came out on top. What follows is a summary of that report and a more detailed look at how the DA-run Western Cape Office of the Premier faired. There is some critical information in this article and some invaluable statistics. All in all, further proof that, where the DA governs, it delivers better services than the ANC, to more people.
15 May 2012
The media’s stony silence on racism concerning the DA
FEATURE: Here is a question: Is Lindiwe Mazibuko a ‘house nigger’? That might seem like a grotesque enquiry but it is one that has been openly asked of her on Twitter. That together with a myriad other forms of racial abuse and hatred. But is it met with the same intensity of outrage that follows any perceived slight on the DA’s part? Not a chance. DA public representatives, and its black members in particular, are routinely labeled everything from ‘darkie’ to ‘kaffir’. My question is, what is the media going to do about it?
11 May 2012
The DA’s 2012 Federal Congress: 1
SERIES: This year the DA will be holding its Federal Congress, the party’s highest decision-making body. I thought, as a helpful guide for those interested, in the press and the party alike, in the run-up to the Congress I would set out the basic facts as to how it will work and what will happen at it. Here then is the first installment in that series, including the date, who can attend and where it will be held. Over the coming months I’ll bring you more information as and when it becomes available.
10 May 2012
TARGET MIDVAAL: Postscript: Is the ANC trying to absorb Midvaal into a metro?
POSTSCRIPT: In response to yesterday’s blog, which argued the SIU investigation into Midvaal is biased a reader sent me a story from a community newspaper in Gauteng. If true, it suggests that the ANC has lodged two proposals with the Demarcations Board, to have Midvaal absorbed into what would be an ANC-run metro. Is this the ANC’s latest attempt to circumvent the result of a democratic election?
inside politics 