inside politics

Analysis of and commentary on South African politics.

Category: Opposition Politics

9 December 2025

Election 2026/7 [10] Fragmentation: The most powerful force in Gauteng


We have looked, in detail, at turnout trends, which will be a determining factor in the next elections. The other primary force – perhaps even more impactful than turnout – is fragmentation: the degree to which the ANC’s and DA’s vote share has split since 2011. Back then, those two parties had a monopoly on the metro vote. Since then, both the number of “Other Parties” and their combined vote share, has exploded.

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3 December 2025

Election 2026/7 Resource: Heat Map | TSH | Other Parties Support


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27 October 2025

Election 2026/7 [6] Turnout, Nelson Mandela Bay, the ANC and DA


A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Nelson Mandela Bay, with a focus on the ANC and DA. Both the ANC and the DA are decline here. Both had the potential for a 50% majority but, the data suggests, no more. Rather, what we are seeing is an attritional fight between the two for diminishing returns, and only more voter enthusiasm will solve that.

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14 October 2025

Election 2026/7 [4] Turnout, eThekwini, the ANC and DA


A comprehensive look at turnout trends in eThekwini, with a focus on the ANC and DA. eThekwini is arguably South Africa’s most dramatic metro: broad competition, huge swings in support and thus, a very volatile political landscape. And it is in the middle of exactly such an upheaval with, it seems, much more to come.

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3 October 2025

Election 2026/7 [3] Turnout, Ekurhuleni, the ANC and DA


A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Ekurhuleni, with a focus on the ANC and DA. The ANC’s support appears to be in an exponential decline and, as a result, the DA needs only the smallest differential turnout advantage to make a profound impact. But the turnout trends are not on the DA’s side, and it is going to require something special.

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23 September 2025

Election 2026/7 [2] Turnout, Tshwane, the ANC and DA


A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Tshwane, with a focus on the ANC and DA. All-in-all, a marginally better picture for the ANC and DA, but that is only relative to Johannesburg. Both parties have serious problems, and it would seem like higher turnout is the only way either are going to solve them.

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10 September 2025

Election 2026/7 [1] Turnout, Johannesburg, the ANC and DA


A comprehensive look at turnout trends, starting nationally and moving to Johannesburg, with a focus on the ANC and DA. All indications are the ANC is in terminal decline, a problem exacerbated by low turnout; however, the DA has problems of its own on this front, and few places make the case better than Johannesburg.

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23 April 2025

Public perceptions on Kill the Boer


The Social Research Foundation (SRF) recently commissioned a short, nationally representative survey on public perceptions around free speech, hate speech and the song Kill the Boer. The survey was conducted by Victory Research (of which I am the CEO). The SRF was kind enough to let me set out the findings. What follows is a summary of the key insights.

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24 June 2024

Election 2024 [15]: Mapping ANC, DA, MK and EFF support by race


Thread: “Mapping ANC, DA, MK and EFF support by race” This thread maps the 2024 Election support for the big four political parties – the ANC, DA, MK and EFF – by race, with an emphasis on Black voters, how they are distributed and the degree to which they turned out.

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10 April 2024

Election 2024 [14]: The Action South Africa bullshit monster


Thread: “The Action South Africa bullshit monster” This thread looks at Herman Mashaba’s spin on ASA’s 2021 election results, explains his hostility towards market research, and sets out how the media have uncritically facilitated his deceit.

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7 February 2024

Election 2024 [10] Scenarios: Can the ANC avoid falling below 50% in Gauteng?


A thread: “Can the ANC avoid falling below 50% in Gauteng?” This thread looks at approximately 350 Gauteng turnout scenarios, with a view to determining how easy or difficult it is the for ANC to get over 50%.

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26 January 2024

Election 2024 [8] What are the electoral politics of the Multi-Party Charter?


A thread: “What are the electoral politics of the MPC?” This thread looks at the electoral implications of the MPC, the political capital involved for each member, as well as the risks for smaller parties, when joining a coalition government.

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24 January 2024

Election 2024 [7] What would happen if Rise Mzansi, the PA, BOSA and ASA achieved their election goals?


A thread: “What would happen if Rise Mzansi, the PA, BOSA and ASA achieved their election goals? This thread looks at the 2024 election predictions made by these parties, and what they would mean in real terms, if they ever came to pass.

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31 May 2019

Patricia “Kortbroek” de Lille


After a lifetime of anti-ANC sentiment and on the back of a political career that, ultimately, was only ever a small rickety temple to her own ego, Patricia de Lille has whitewashed a library full of contempt for the ANC, by joining the ANC Cabinet. She is a modern day Marthinus van Schalkwyk. And so, to her should go the title “Kortbroek”, which came to define his particular brand of expediency.

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14 June 2018

The media’s short-sighted hostility to the DA’s 2009 ‘Stop Zuma’ campaign


I am going to try and post to Inside Politics more often. One way of doing that, relatively easily for me, is to post some of the many archives I have produced over the years, perhaps with a bit of analysis upfront. Here follows an example: a collection of quotes from the commentariat on the DA’s 2009 ‘Stop Zuma’ posters, which were widely derided as evidence of fearmongering, poor strategy and the unfair personalisation of the election. With the benefit of hindsight, of course, the campaign and the message were clearly both important and prescient. The DA’s message is often overlooked in favour of such considerations as style and tone. Nothing makes the case better than the story of the ‘Stop Zuma’ posters.

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12 February 2013

Mamphela Ramphele and the triumph of narcissism over strategy


MamphelaRampeleFEATURE: Mamphela Ramphele is due to make a significant announcement on Monday. All indications are she will announce, at least, the framework for a new political party; no doubt with her at the helm. If she does, it will represent the triumph of ego over sound political analysis and, as a result, the indulgence of narcissism above South Africa’s best interests. That, and a failure to learn from history. Here is why.

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