inside politics

Analysis of and commentary on South African politics.

Tag: Ekurhuleni

Election 2026/7 [10] Fragmentation: The most powerful force in Gauteng


We have looked, in detail, at turnout trends, which will be a determining factor in the next elections. The other primary force – perhaps even more impactful than turnout – is fragmentation: the degree to which the ANC’s and DA’s vote share has split since 2011. Back then, those two parties had a monopoly on the metro vote. Since then, both the number of “Other Parties” and their combined vote share, has exploded.

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Election 2026/7 Resource: Heat Map | EKU | Second Biggest Party


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Election 2026/7 Resource: Heat Map | EKU | Turnout


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Election 2026/7 Resource: Heat Map | EKU | Leading Party Support


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Election 2026/7 Resource: Heat Map | EKU | Other Parties Support


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Election 2026/7 Resource: Heat Map | EKU | MK Support


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Election 2026/7 Resource: Heat Map | EKU | EFF Support


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Election 2026/7 Resource: Heat Map | EKU | DA Support


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Election 2026/7 Resource: Heat Map | EKU | All Maps


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Election 2026/7 Resource: Heat Map | EKU | ANC Support


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Election 2026/7 Resource: ANC-DA Ward Trade-Offs | EKU


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Election 2026/7 Resource: DA Turnout | EKU by Ward


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Election 2026/7 Resource: ANC Turnout | EKU by Ward


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Election 2026/7 [3] Turnout, Ekurhuleni, the ANC and DA


A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Ekurhuleni, with a focus on the ANC and DA. The ANC’s support appears to be in an exponential decline and, as a result, the DA needs only the smallest differential turnout advantage to make a profound impact. But the turnout trends are not on the DA’s side, and it is going to require something special.

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Election 2024 [10] Scenarios: Can the ANC avoid falling below 50% in Gauteng?


A thread: “Can the ANC avoid falling below 50% in Gauteng?” This thread looks at approximately 350 Gauteng turnout scenarios, with a view to determining how easy or difficult it is the for ANC to get over 50%.

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