A thread: “How did the EFF do so well in 2019?” This thread looks at the EFF, and its performance in the 2019 national and provincial elections – how it grew, where it grew and what factors drove its growth.
A thread: “The Western Cape and the rise of the small parties”. The following thread looks at the DA’s electoral record in the Western Cape, the ANC’s collapse, and a new threat to both, from smaller parties in the province (with nice graphs!)
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A Thread: “How the IFP survived Buthelezi’s disastrous leadership”. This thread explores the IFP’s electoral record nationally and, in detail, in KZN , along with its decline under Buthelezi and small revival in 2019 (with nice graphs!)
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A thread: “Why turnout is such a critical factor” The following thread looks at turnout and its relationship to the ANC’s vote share, which I think is a critical factor ahead of the 2024 election, and not properly thought about.
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A thread: “Why Gauteng is so important to the ANC”. The following thread looks how central Gauteng is to the ANC’s 2024 national electoral prospects, and maps how dire the situation looks for the party provincially (with nice graphs!).
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FEATURE: What follows is a brief 2009 election overview of the results of the five more established smaller parties: the African Christian Democratic Party, Freedom Front Plus, United Democratic Movement, Independent Democrats and the Inkatha Freedom Party. Outside of the ANC, DA and COPE, they constitute the five next biggest (or smallest) parties in the National Assembly. It suggests that, come 2014, there is little point to them standing in every province. Doing so might allow them the pretense of being ‘national’ but, in reality, their results are so poor as to render it a foolish exercise.
inside politics 