inside politics

Analysis of and commentary on South African politics.

Tag: Johannesburg

9 December 2025

Election 2026/7 [10] Fragmentation: The most powerful force in Gauteng


We have looked, in detail, at turnout trends, which will be a determining factor in the next elections. The other primary force – perhaps even more impactful than turnout – is fragmentation: the degree to which the ANC’s and DA’s vote share has split since 2011. Back then, those two parties had a monopoly on the metro vote. Since then, both the number of “Other Parties” and their combined vote share, has exploded.

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7 December 2025

Election 2026/7 Resource: Heat Map | JHB | Second Biggest Party


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4 December 2025

Election 2026/7 Resource: Heat Map | JHB | Turnout


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1 December 2025

Election 2026/7 [9] Johannesburg and the dire state of the ANC and DA engine rooms


An in-depth look at the ANC and DA strongholds in Johannesburg, and how they have performed over time. This essay relies on a series of heat maps, which illustrate ANC and DA support and, mapped over time, demonstrate the role these strongholds have played and where they stand, ahead of the next election.

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30 November 2025

Election 2026/7 Resource: Heat Map | JHB | Leading Party Support


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30 November 2025

Election 2026/7 Resource: Heat Map | JHB | Other Parties Support


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28 November 2025

Election 2026/7 Resource: Heat Map | JHB | All Maps


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28 November 2025

Election 2026/7 Resource: Heat Map | JHB | MK Support


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28 November 2025

Election 2026/7 Resource: Heat Map | JHB | ASA Support


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28 November 2025

Election 2026/7 Resource: Heat Map | JHB | EFF Support


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28 November 2025

Election 2026/7 Resource: Heat Map | JHB | DA Support


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28 November 2025

Election 2026/7 Resource: Heat Map | JHB | ANC Support


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8 October 2025

Election 2026/7 Resource: DA Turnout | JHB by Ward


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8 October 2025

Election 2026/7 Resource: ANC Turnout | JHB by Ward


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3 October 2025

Election 2026/7 [3] Turnout, Ekurhuleni, the ANC and DA


A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Ekurhuleni, with a focus on the ANC and DA. The ANC’s support appears to be in an exponential decline and, as a result, the DA needs only the smallest differential turnout advantage to make a profound impact. But the turnout trends are not on the DA’s side, and it is going to require something special.

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10 September 2025

Election 2026/7 [1] Turnout, Johannesburg, the ANC and DA


A comprehensive look at turnout trends, starting nationally and moving to Johannesburg, with a focus on the ANC and DA. All indications are the ANC is in terminal decline, a problem exacerbated by low turnout; however, the DA has problems of its own on this front, and few places make the case better than Johannesburg.

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7 February 2024

Election 2024 [10] Scenarios: Can the ANC avoid falling below 50% in Gauteng?


A thread: “Can the ANC avoid falling below 50% in Gauteng?” This thread looks at approximately 350 Gauteng turnout scenarios, with a view to determining how easy or difficult it is the for ANC to get over 50%.

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1 April 2019

How Ipsos got ANC support completely wrong in 2016


InsidePoliticsFEATURE:  In 2016 eNCA teamed up with market research company Ipsos to produce a weekly voter tracking poll. It got the ANC’s support levels horribly wrong. But, through a clever piece of last minute spin, it managed to muddy the waters and avoid ever accounting for the mess that were the eNCA/Ipsos weekly polls. It is a familiar pattern Ipsos seems to indulge every election. Here is how it all went down.

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23 July 2012

Johannesburg and nationalism: 1890 vs 2012


FEATURE: There are many parallels between the ANC’s particular brand of African nationalism and the nationalism practiced by previous governments in South Africa’s past. It is a comparison not often made but one which holds many lessons. Consider Johannesburg in the late 1800s for example: under the control of a nationalist administration it faced and created numerous problems which we face today and a description of the city back then, which follows below, sounds eerily familiar.

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