A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Ekurhuleni, with a focus on the ANC and DA. The ANC’s support appears to be in an exponential decline and, as a result, the DA needs only the smallest differential turnout advantage to make a profound impact. But the turnout trends are not on the DA’s side, and it is going to require something special.
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Thread: “Mapping ANC, DA, MK and EFF support by race” This thread maps the 2024 Election support for the big four political parties – the ANC, DA, MK and EFF – by race, with an emphasis on Black voters, how they are distributed and the degree to which they turned out.
Read the rest of this entry »Thread: “The Action South Africa bullshit monster” This thread looks at Herman Mashaba’s spin on ASA’s 2021 election results, explains his hostility towards market research, and sets out how the media have uncritically facilitated his deceit.
Read the rest of this entry »A thread: “Can the ANC avoid falling below 50% in Gauteng?” This thread looks at approximately 350 Gauteng turnout scenarios, with a view to determining how easy or difficult it is the for ANC to get over 50%.
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FEATURE: Did you know Cape Town has hosted Bafana Bafana just four times in 19 years? That is a fairly remarkable fact. The city is hardly the sporting backwaters. In fact, almost every argument you can come up with against Cape Town hosting the national soccer team does not, on the evidence, appear to hold any weight. To see who has hosted the most games and why Cape Town deserves to see the national team more often, read on.
FEATURE: In 2007 and despite much public promising that it would seek to have a woman in the ANC presidency, the ANC woman’s league hypocritically capitulated and supported Jacob Zuma for president. So, what will it do this time round, at Mangaung? What follows is a retrospective, setting out what happened in 2007 and how, repeatedly, the ANCWL would come out on the wrong side of any debate that had at its heart the interests of women.
inside politics 