inside politics

Analysis of and commentary on South African politics.

Tag: Tshwane

Election 2026/7 [10] Fragmentation: The most powerful force in Gauteng


We have looked, in detail, at turnout trends, which will be a determining factor in the next elections. The other primary force – perhaps even more impactful than turnout – is fragmentation: the degree to which the ANC’s and DA’s vote share has split since 2011. Back then, those two parties had a monopoly on the metro vote. Since then, both the number of “Other Parties” and their combined vote share, has exploded.

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Election 2026/7 Resource: Heat Map | TSH | Second Biggest Party


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Election 2026/7 Resource: Heat Map | TSH | Turnout


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Election 2026/7 Resource: Heat Map | TSH | Leading Party Support


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Election 2026/7 Resource: Heat Map | TSH | Other Parties Support


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Election 2026/7 Resource: Heat Map | TSH | ASA Support


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Election 2026/7 Resource: Heat Map | TSH | EFF Support


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Election 2026/7 Resource: Heat Map | TSH | DA Support


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Election 2026/7 Resource: Heat Map | TSH | All Maps


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Election 2026/7 Resource: Heat Map | TSH | ANC Support


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Election 2026/7 Resource: ANC-DA Ward Trade-Offs | TSH


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Election 2026/7 Resource: DA Turnout | TSH by Ward


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Election 2026/7 Resource: ANC Turnout | TSH by Ward


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Election 2026/7 [3] Turnout, Ekurhuleni, the ANC and DA


A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Ekurhuleni, with a focus on the ANC and DA. The ANC’s support appears to be in an exponential decline and, as a result, the DA needs only the smallest differential turnout advantage to make a profound impact. But the turnout trends are not on the DA’s side, and it is going to require something special.

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Election 2026/7 [2] Turnout, Tshwane, the ANC and DA


A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Tshwane, with a focus on the ANC and DA. All-in-all, a marginally better picture for the ANC and DA, but that is only relative to Johannesburg. Both parties have serious problems, and it would seem like higher turnout is the only way either are going to solve them.

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Election 2024 [10] Scenarios: Can the ANC avoid falling below 50% in Gauteng?


A thread: “Can the ANC avoid falling below 50% in Gauteng?” This thread looks at approximately 350 Gauteng turnout scenarios, with a view to determining how easy or difficult it is the for ANC to get over 50%.

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How Ipsos got ANC support completely wrong in 2016


InsidePoliticsFEATURE:  In 2016 eNCA teamed up with market research company Ipsos to produce a weekly voter tracking poll. It got the ANC’s support levels horribly wrong. But, through a clever piece of last minute spin, it managed to muddy the waters and avoid ever accounting for the mess that were the eNCA/Ipsos weekly polls. It is a familiar pattern Ipsos seems to indulge every election. Here is how it all went down.

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