inside politics
Analysis of and commentary on South African politics.
Category: ANC
9 December 2025
Election 2026/7 [10] Fragmentation: The most powerful force in Gauteng
We have looked, in detail, at turnout trends, which will be a determining factor in the next elections. The other primary force – perhaps even more impactful than turnout – is fragmentation: the degree to which the ANC’s and DA’s vote share has split since 2011. Back then, those two parties had a monopoly on the metro vote. Since then, both the number of “Other Parties” and their combined vote share, has exploded.
Read the rest of this entry »1 December 2025
Election 2026/7 [9] Johannesburg and the dire state of the ANC and DA engine rooms
An in-depth look at the ANC and DA strongholds in Johannesburg, and how they have performed over time. This essay relies on a series of heat maps, which illustrate ANC and DA support and, mapped over time, demonstrate the role these strongholds have played and where they stand, ahead of the next election.
Read the rest of this entry »27 November 2025
Election 2026/7 [8] Turnout, Cape Town, the ANC and DA
A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Cape Town, with a focus on the ANC and DA. The DA’s urban stronghold, which boasted a 66% majority at one stage, now sits in the 50% bracket. The ANC has faded away into obscurity and, in its wake, the rise of smaller parties, along with declining turnout, would now seem to pose the biggest threat to the DA’s dominance.
Read the rest of this entry »13 November 2025
Election 2026/7 [7] Turnout, Buffalo City, the ANC and DA
A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Buffalo City, with a focus on the ANC and DA. Historical data suggests Buffalo City is the one metro where the ANC has a credible path to 50%. That is not to say it is a likely path, but a path none-the-less. Its enemy here is apathy, as it is everywhere, only the DA is far less of a concern.
Read the rest of this entry »27 October 2025
Election 2026/7 [6] Turnout, Nelson Mandela Bay, the ANC and DA
A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Nelson Mandela Bay, with a focus on the ANC and DA. Both the ANC and the DA are decline here. Both had the potential for a 50% majority but, the data suggests, no more. Rather, what we are seeing is an attritional fight between the two for diminishing returns, and only more voter enthusiasm will solve that.
Read the rest of this entry »21 October 2025
Election 2026/7 [5] Turnout, Mangaung, the ANC and DA
A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Mangaung, with a focus on the ANC and DA. The ANC is still in decline here, but there is no cliff its support has fallen off, at least not yet – more a slow, gradual erosion. As of 2024, the party is still above 50% in the metro, just, but all indications are this ANC majority will fall too, in the near future.
Read the rest of this entry »14 October 2025
Election 2026/7 [4] Turnout, eThekwini, the ANC and DA
A comprehensive look at turnout trends in eThekwini, with a focus on the ANC and DA. eThekwini is arguably South Africa’s most dramatic metro: broad competition, huge swings in support and thus, a very volatile political landscape. And it is in the middle of exactly such an upheaval with, it seems, much more to come.
Read the rest of this entry »3 October 2025
Election 2026/7 [3] Turnout, Ekurhuleni, the ANC and DA
A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Ekurhuleni, with a focus on the ANC and DA. The ANC’s support appears to be in an exponential decline and, as a result, the DA needs only the smallest differential turnout advantage to make a profound impact. But the turnout trends are not on the DA’s side, and it is going to require something special.
Read the rest of this entry »23 September 2025
Election 2026/7 [2] Turnout, Tshwane, the ANC and DA
A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Tshwane, with a focus on the ANC and DA. All-in-all, a marginally better picture for the ANC and DA, but that is only relative to Johannesburg. Both parties have serious problems, and it would seem like higher turnout is the only way either are going to solve them.
Read the rest of this entry »10 September 2025
Election 2026/7 [1] Turnout, Johannesburg, the ANC and DA
A comprehensive look at turnout trends, starting nationally and moving to Johannesburg, with a focus on the ANC and DA. All indications are the ANC is in terminal decline, a problem exacerbated by low turnout; however, the DA has problems of its own on this front, and few places make the case better than Johannesburg.
Read the rest of this entry »23 April 2025
Public perceptions on Kill the Boer
The Social Research Foundation (SRF) recently commissioned a short, nationally representative survey on public perceptions around free speech, hate speech and the song Kill the Boer. The survey was conducted by Victory Research (of which I am the CEO). The SRF was kind enough to let me set out the findings. What follows is a summary of the key insights.
2 July 2024
Election 2024 [16]: Full demographic profiles of ANC, DA, MK, EFF and IFP support
Thread: “Full demographic profiles of ANC, DA, MK, EFF and IFP”. Mapping the support of each party by age, employment status, monthly income, residential area, population group, educational level, first language, province and gender.
Read the rest of this entry »24 June 2024
Election 2024 [15]: Mapping ANC, DA, MK and EFF support by race
Thread: “Mapping ANC, DA, MK and EFF support by race” This thread maps the 2024 Election support for the big four political parties – the ANC, DA, MK and EFF – by race, with an emphasis on Black voters, how they are distributed and the degree to which they turned out.
Read the rest of this entry »
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