A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Cape Town, with a focus on the ANC and DA. The DA’s urban stronghold, which boasted a 66% majority at one stage, now sits in the 50% bracket. The ANC has faded away into obscurity and, in its wake, the rise of smaller parties, along with declining turnout, would now seem to pose the biggest threat to the DA’s dominance.
Read the rest of this entry »A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Buffalo City, with a focus on the ANC and DA. Historical data suggests Buffalo City is the one metro where the ANC has a credible path to 50%. That is not to say it is a likely path, but a path none-the-less. Its enemy here is apathy, as it is everywhere, only the DA is far less of a concern.
Read the rest of this entry »A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Nelson Mandela Bay, with a focus on the ANC and DA. Both the ANC and the DA are decline here. Both had the potential for a 50% majority but, the data suggests, no more. Rather, what we are seeing is an attritional fight between the two for diminishing returns, and only more voter enthusiasm will solve that.
Read the rest of this entry »A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Mangaung, with a focus on the ANC and DA. The ANC is still in decline here, but there is no cliff its support has fallen off, at least not yet – more a slow, gradual erosion. As of 2024, the party is still above 50% in the metro, just, but all indications are this ANC majority will fall too, in the near future.
Read the rest of this entry »A comprehensive look at turnout trends in eThekwini, with a focus on the ANC and DA. eThekwini is arguably South Africa’s most dramatic metro: broad competition, huge swings in support and thus, a very volatile political landscape. And it is in the middle of exactly such an upheaval with, it seems, much more to come.
Read the rest of this entry »A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Ekurhuleni, with a focus on the ANC and DA. The ANC’s support appears to be in an exponential decline and, as a result, the DA needs only the smallest differential turnout advantage to make a profound impact. But the turnout trends are not on the DA’s side, and it is going to require something special.
Read the rest of this entry »A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Tshwane, with a focus on the ANC and DA. All-in-all, a marginally better picture for the ANC and DA, but that is only relative to Johannesburg. Both parties have serious problems, and it would seem like higher turnout is the only way either are going to solve them.
Read the rest of this entry »A comprehensive look at turnout trends, starting nationally and moving to Johannesburg, with a focus on the ANC and DA. All indications are the ANC is in terminal decline, a problem exacerbated by low turnout; however, the DA has problems of its own on this front, and few places make the case better than Johannesburg.
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The Social Research Foundation (SRF) recently commissioned a short, nationally representative survey on public perceptions around free speech, hate speech and the song Kill the Boer. The survey was conducted by Victory Research (of which I am the CEO). The SRF was kind enough to let me set out the findings. What follows is a summary of the key insights.
James Joyce said, “I am tomorrow, or some future day, what I establish today. I am today what I established yesterday or some previous day.” When it comes to the EFF, however, it is hard to tell whether its revolution is being established, was established or has yet to be established.
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A fun, very brief look at the EFF’s staggering dog hypocrisy. Some of Julius Malema and Floyd Shivambu’s favourite dog quotes, and why the EFF is an Animal Farm in more ways than one.
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Thread: “Full demographic profiles of ANC, DA, MK, EFF and IFP”. Mapping the support of each party by age, employment status, monthly income, residential area, population group, educational level, first language, province and gender.
Read the rest of this entry »Thread: “Mapping ANC, DA, MK and EFF support by race” This thread maps the 2024 Election support for the big four political parties – the ANC, DA, MK and EFF – by race, with an emphasis on Black voters, how they are distributed and the degree to which they turned out.
Read the rest of this entry »Thread: “The Action South Africa bullshit monster” This thread looks at Herman Mashaba’s spin on ASA’s 2021 election results, explains his hostility towards market research, and sets out how the media have uncritically facilitated his deceit.
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Thread: “Busting the ‘disillusioned youth’ myth” This thread seeks to challenge a common and popular narrative which suggests declining youth registration and voting patterns is best attributed to disillusionment, as opposed to apathy.
Read the rest of this entry »Thread: “How voter registration is declining” This thread looks at long term voter registration trends, and compares them to the potential registration pool, to see what the key indicators say about the ever-decreasing enthusiasm for South African elections.
Read the rest of this entry »A thread: “Immediate takeaways from the latest SRF KZN poll”. This thread looks at the latest SRF market survey in KwaZulu-Natal, and some of the national and provincial implications that flow from MK’s performance in it.
Read the rest of this entry »A thread: “Can the ANC avoid falling below 50% in Gauteng?” This thread looks at approximately 350 Gauteng turnout scenarios, with a view to determining how easy or difficult it is the for ANC to get over 50%.
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