inside politics
Analysis of and commentary on South African politics.
14 October 2025
Election 2026/7 [4] Turnout, eThekwini, the ANC and DA
A comprehensive look at turnout trends in eThekwini, with a focus on the ANC and DA. eThekwini is arguably South Africa’s most dramatic metro: broad competition, huge swings in support and thus, a very volatile political landscape. And it is in the middle of exactly such an upheaval with, it seems, much more to come.
Read the rest of this entry »3 October 2025
Election 2026/7 [3] Turnout, Ekurhuleni, the ANC and DA
A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Ekurhuleni, with a focus on the ANC and DA. The ANC’s support appears to be in an exponential decline and, as a result, the DA needs only the smallest differential turnout advantage to make a profound impact. But the turnout trends are not on the DA’s side, and it is going to require something special.
Read the rest of this entry »23 September 2025
Election 2026/7 [2] Turnout, Tshwane, the ANC and DA
A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Tshwane, with a focus on the ANC and DA. All-in-all, a marginally better picture for the ANC and DA, but that is only relative to Johannesburg. Both parties have serious problems, and it would seem like higher turnout is the only way either are going to solve them.
Read the rest of this entry »10 September 2025
Election 2026/7 [1] Turnout, Johannesburg, the ANC and DA
A comprehensive look at turnout trends, starting nationally and moving to Johannesburg, with a focus on the ANC and DA. All indications are the ANC is in terminal decline, a problem exacerbated by low turnout; however, the DA has problems of its own on this front, and few places make the case better than Johannesburg.
Read the rest of this entry »23 April 2025
Public perceptions on Kill the Boer
The Social Research Foundation (SRF) recently commissioned a short, nationally representative survey on public perceptions around free speech, hate speech and the song Kill the Boer. The survey was conducted by Victory Research (of which I am the CEO). The SRF was kind enough to let me set out the findings. What follows is a summary of the key insights.
24 July 2024
The EFF’s 11 wasted years
James Joyce said, “I am tomorrow, or some future day, what I establish today. I am today what I established yesterday or some previous day.” When it comes to the EFF, however, it is hard to tell whether its revolution is being established, was established or has yet to be established.
Read the rest of this entry »3 July 2024
Who let the EFF dogs out
A fun, very brief look at the EFF’s staggering dog hypocrisy. Some of Julius Malema and Floyd Shivambu’s favourite dog quotes, and why the EFF is an Animal Farm in more ways than one.
Read the rest of this entry »2 July 2024
Election 2024 [16]: Full demographic profiles of ANC, DA, MK, EFF and IFP support
Thread: “Full demographic profiles of ANC, DA, MK, EFF and IFP”. Mapping the support of each party by age, employment status, monthly income, residential area, population group, educational level, first language, province and gender.
Read the rest of this entry »24 June 2024
Election 2024 [15]: Mapping ANC, DA, MK and EFF support by race
Thread: “Mapping ANC, DA, MK and EFF support by race” This thread maps the 2024 Election support for the big four political parties – the ANC, DA, MK and EFF – by race, with an emphasis on Black voters, how they are distributed and the degree to which they turned out.
Read the rest of this entry »10 April 2024
Election 2024 [14]: The Action South Africa bullshit monster
Thread: “The Action South Africa bullshit monster” This thread looks at Herman Mashaba’s spin on ASA’s 2021 election results, explains his hostility towards market research, and sets out how the media have uncritically facilitated his deceit.
Read the rest of this entry »7 April 2024
Election 2024 [13]: Busting the “disillusioned youth” myth
Thread: “Busting the ‘disillusioned youth’ myth” This thread seeks to challenge a common and popular narrative which suggests declining youth registration and voting patterns is best attributed to disillusionment, as opposed to apathy.
Read the rest of this entry »27 February 2024
Election 2024 [12]: How voter registration is declining
Thread: “How voter registration is declining” This thread looks at long term voter registration trends, and compares them to the potential registration pool, to see what the key indicators say about the ever-decreasing enthusiasm for South African elections.
Read the rest of this entry »13 February 2024
Election 2024 [11] Immediate takeaways from the latest SRF KZN poll
A thread: “Immediate takeaways from the latest SRF KZN poll”. This thread looks at the latest SRF market survey in KwaZulu-Natal, and some of the national and provincial implications that flow from MK’s performance in it.
Read the rest of this entry »7 February 2024
Election 2024 [10] Scenarios: Can the ANC avoid falling below 50% in Gauteng?
A thread: “Can the ANC avoid falling below 50% in Gauteng?” This thread looks at approximately 350 Gauteng turnout scenarios, with a view to determining how easy or difficult it is the for ANC to get over 50%.
Read the rest of this entry »4 February 2024
Election 2024[9] Can the ANC fall below 50% in the Free State?
A thread: “Can the ANC fall below 50% in the Free State?” This thread maps the ANC’s performance in the Free State down to municipal level, with a view to determining where it is weakest and strongest, and what turnout scenarios would result in it falling below 50% in 2024.
Read the rest of this entry »26 January 2024
Election 2024 [8] What are the electoral politics of the Multi-Party Charter?
A thread: “What are the electoral politics of the MPC?” This thread looks at the electoral implications of the MPC, the political capital involved for each member, as well as the risks for smaller parties, when joining a coalition government.
Read the rest of this entry »24 January 2024
Election 2024 [7] What would happen if Rise Mzansi, the PA, BOSA and ASA achieved their election goals?
A thread: “What would happen if Rise Mzansi, the PA, BOSA and ASA achieved their election goals? This thread looks at the 2024 election predictions made by these parties, and what they would mean in real terms, if they ever came to pass.
Read the rest of this entry »18 January 2024
Election 2024 [6]: How did the EFF do so well in 2019?
A thread: “How did the EFF do so well in 2019?” This thread looks at the EFF, and its performance in the 2019 national and provincial elections – how it grew, where it grew and what factors drove its growth.
14 January 2024
Election 2024 [5]: Scenarios: Why it is so difficult to get the ANC below 50%
A thread: “Scenarios: Why it is so difficult to get the ANC below 50%”. This thread looks at approximately 500 national turnout scenarios, with a view to determining how easy or difficult it is the for ANC to get to 50% nationally.
Read the rest of this entry »8 January 2024
Election 2024 [4]: The Western Cape and the rise of the small parties
A thread: “The Western Cape and the rise of the small parties”. The following thread looks at the DA’s electoral record in the Western Cape, the ANC’s collapse, and a new threat to both, from smaller parties in the province (with nice graphs!)
Read the rest of this entry »4 January 2024
Election 2024 [3]: How the IFP survived Buthelezi’s disastrous leadership
A Thread: “How the IFP survived Buthelezi’s disastrous leadership”. This thread explores the IFP’s electoral record nationally and, in detail, in KZN , along with its decline under Buthelezi and small revival in 2019 (with nice graphs!)
Read the rest of this entry »1 January 2024
Election 2024 [1]: Why turnout is critical and its relationship to the ANC’s vote share
A thread: “Why turnout is such a critical factor” The following thread looks at turnout and its relationship to the ANC’s vote share, which I think is a critical factor ahead of the 2024 election, and not properly thought about.
Read the rest of this entry »1 January 2024
Election 2024 [2]: Why Gauteng is so important to the ANC
A thread: “Why Gauteng is so important to the ANC”. The following thread looks how central Gauteng is to the ANC’s 2024 national electoral prospects, and maps how dire the situation looks for the party provincially (with nice graphs!).
Read the rest of this entry »31 May 2019
Patricia “Kortbroek” de Lille
After a lifetime of anti-ANC sentiment and on the back of a political career that, ultimately, was only ever a small rickety temple to her own ego, Patricia de Lille has whitewashed a library full of contempt for the ANC, by joining the ANC Cabinet. She is a modern day Marthinus van Schalkwyk. And so, to her should go the title “Kortbroek”, which came to define his particular brand of expediency.
1 April 2019
How Ipsos got ANC support completely wrong in 2016
FEATURE: In 2016 eNCA teamed up with market research company Ipsos to produce a weekly voter tracking poll. It got the ANC’s support levels horribly wrong. But, through a clever piece of last minute spin, it managed to muddy the waters and avoid ever accounting for the mess that were the eNCA/Ipsos weekly polls. It is a familiar pattern Ipsos seems to indulge every election. Here is how it all went down.
11 January 2019
The Zumaphosa Monitor
Search as hard as you can, you won’t final a single critical word from President Cyril Ramaphosa about former President Jacob Zuma. That’s the Jacob Zuma, the man who brought South Africa to the brink. What you will find, however, is praise, and a lot of it. The Zumaphosa Monitor is designed to track everything Ramaphosa has said about Jacob Zuma in the hope that, one day, he might actually have a critical word to say directly about the former President. When he does, it will shut down.
14 June 2018
The media’s short-sighted hostility to the DA’s 2009 ‘Stop Zuma’ campaign
I am going to try and post to Inside Politics more often. One way of doing that, relatively easily for me, is to post some of the many archives I have produced over the years, perhaps with a bit of analysis upfront. Here follows an example: a collection of quotes from the commentariat on the DA’s 2009 ‘Stop Zuma’ posters, which were widely derided as evidence of fearmongering, poor strategy and the unfair personalisation of the election. With the benefit of hindsight, of course, the campaign and the message were clearly both important and prescient. The DA’s message is often overlooked in favour of such considerations as style and tone. Nothing makes the case better than the story of the ‘Stop Zuma’ posters.
17 August 2015
The ANC, religion and ‘the truth’
SPEECH: This past Tuesday I delivered an address on the ANC, religion and ‘the truth’. For those interested, a copy of that speech follows below. It argues that there is much to be understand about the ANC when it is viewed not as a political party but a religious movement and explores what happens when a party which once held a monopoly over ‘the truth’ suffers a crisis of legitimacy?
23 May 2015
Causes and implications of the Liberal Democrats 2015 election result
FEATURE: This is a fuller and updated version of the article that appeared in the Guardian today, by Ryan Coetzee, who served as election strategist for the Liberal Democrats over the course of the 2015 elections. In it, he sets out the causes and implications of the result of the election for the party.
22 June 2014
Jacob Zuma: The man who walks in two worlds
SPEECH: This past Thursday I delivered an address on President Jacob Zuma to The Cape Town Press Club. For those interested, a copy of that speech follows below. It speaks to some of the themes identified in my book, “Clever Blacks, Jesus and Nkandla: The real Jacob Zuma in his own words”, and looks at the extent to which the fourth estate meaningfully interrogates Zuma’s various problematic religious and cultural convictions.
16 July 2013
King Dalindyebo Sentence: Full Document
I have uploaded to Inside Politics the full sentence handed down by the High Court in Mthatha Eastern Cape on 4 December 2009, against King Dalindyebo, who recently joined the DA as a member – a move DA Eastern Cape Leader Athol Trollip said he was “proud” of. You can find it by clicking here. This is just the 20 page sentence, I hope to have the full judgment by the end of the day. In the sentence, the King is sentenced to 15 years jail time for, among other things: arson, assault with intent to do grievous bodily harm, kidnapping and culpable homicide. The sentence is a damning indictment of the King, and worth reading in full. No doubt the judgement will be equally harsh. There is no statement I can find anywhere on record of the DA ever having had condemned the King, his conduct or the sentence, despite the fact that he draws a public salary.
21 May 2013
On paranoia
SERIES: Paranoia seems to be part and parcel of public life – certainly politicians appear permanently gripped by it. Yet it is curious how often paranoia can infect otherwise rational people, when they are placed in constant contact with it. Today’s piece looks at the idea of paranoia in more detail, why it is problematic and some of its consequences. If you already suffer the problem, who knows, maybe this piece is about you?
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