This is the first in a two part series, that sets out the methodological ground work for Part II. Here I will establish the numbers and method used to generate plausible 50% scenarios for the DA in Johannesburg. In Part II, I will focus on the outcomes of this process.
Read the rest of this entry »An in-depth look at Action South Africa’s prospects in the 2026 elections, with a particular focus on its electoral record in Johannesburg. The metro constitutes something of a double-edged sword for ASA, both its greatest strength, and greatest weakness, as it looks to expand.
Read the rest of this entry »A comprehensive look at turnout trends, starting nationally and moving to Johannesburg, with a focus on the ANC and DA. All indications are the ANC is in terminal decline, a problem exacerbated by low turnout; however, the DA has problems of its own on this front, and few places make the case better than Johannesburg.
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A thread: “The Western Cape and the rise of the small parties”. The following thread looks at the DA’s electoral record in the Western Cape, the ANC’s collapse, and a new threat to both, from smaller parties in the province (with nice graphs!)
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inside politics 