A thread: “Can the ANC avoid falling below 50% in Gauteng?” This thread looks at approximately 350 Gauteng turnout scenarios, with a view to determining how easy or difficult it is the for ANC to get over 50%.
Read the rest of this entry »A thread: “Can the ANC fall below 50% in the Free State?” This thread maps the ANC’s performance in the Free State down to municipal level, with a view to determining where it is weakest and strongest, and what turnout scenarios would result in it falling below 50% in 2024.
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A thread: “Scenarios: Why it is so difficult to get the ANC below 50%”. This thread looks at approximately 500 national turnout scenarios, with a view to determining how easy or difficult it is the for ANC to get to 50% nationally.
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A thread: “The Western Cape and the rise of the small parties”. The following thread looks at the DA’s electoral record in the Western Cape, the ANC’s collapse, and a new threat to both, from smaller parties in the province (with nice graphs!)
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inside politics 