inside politics
Analysis of and commentary on South African politics.
Tag: politics
13 November 2025
Election 2026/7 [7] Turnout, Buffalo City, the ANC and DA
A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Buffalo City, with a focus on the ANC and DA. Historical data suggests Buffalo City is the one metro where the ANC has a credible path to 50%. That is not to say it is a likely path, but a path none-the-less. Its enemy here is apathy, as it is everywhere, only the DA is far less of a concern.
Read the rest of this entry »27 October 2025
Election 2026/7 [6] Turnout, Nelson Mandela Bay, the ANC and DA
A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Nelson Mandela Bay, with a focus on the ANC and DA. Both the ANC and the DA are decline here. Both had the potential for a 50% majority but, the data suggests, no more. Rather, what we are seeing is an attritional fight between the two for diminishing returns, and only more voter enthusiasm will solve that.
Read the rest of this entry »14 October 2025
Election 2026/7 [4] Turnout, eThekwini, the ANC and DA
A comprehensive look at turnout trends in eThekwini, with a focus on the ANC and DA. eThekwini is arguably South Africa’s most dramatic metro: broad competition, huge swings in support and thus, a very volatile political landscape. And it is in the middle of exactly such an upheaval with, it seems, much more to come.
Read the rest of this entry »3 October 2025
Election 2026/7 [3] Turnout, Ekurhuleni, the ANC and DA
A comprehensive look at turnout trends in Ekurhuleni, with a focus on the ANC and DA. The ANC’s support appears to be in an exponential decline and, as a result, the DA needs only the smallest differential turnout advantage to make a profound impact. But the turnout trends are not on the DA’s side, and it is going to require something special.
Read the rest of this entry »10 September 2025
Election 2026/7 [1] Turnout, Johannesburg, the ANC and DA
A comprehensive look at turnout trends, starting nationally and moving to Johannesburg, with a focus on the ANC and DA. All indications are the ANC is in terminal decline, a problem exacerbated by low turnout; however, the DA has problems of its own on this front, and few places make the case better than Johannesburg.
Read the rest of this entry »23 April 2025
Public perceptions on Kill the Boer
The Social Research Foundation (SRF) recently commissioned a short, nationally representative survey on public perceptions around free speech, hate speech and the song Kill the Boer. The survey was conducted by Victory Research (of which I am the CEO). The SRF was kind enough to let me set out the findings. What follows is a summary of the key insights.
24 July 2024
The EFF’s 11 wasted years
James Joyce said, “I am tomorrow, or some future day, what I establish today. I am today what I established yesterday or some previous day.” When it comes to the EFF, however, it is hard to tell whether its revolution is being established, was established or has yet to be established.
Read the rest of this entry »2 July 2024
Election 2024 [16]: Full demographic profiles of ANC, DA, MK, EFF and IFP support
Thread: “Full demographic profiles of ANC, DA, MK, EFF and IFP”. Mapping the support of each party by age, employment status, monthly income, residential area, population group, educational level, first language, province and gender.
Read the rest of this entry »24 June 2024
Election 2024 [15]: Mapping ANC, DA, MK and EFF support by race
Thread: “Mapping ANC, DA, MK and EFF support by race” This thread maps the 2024 Election support for the big four political parties – the ANC, DA, MK and EFF – by race, with an emphasis on Black voters, how they are distributed and the degree to which they turned out.
Read the rest of this entry »7 April 2024
Election 2024 [13]: Busting the “disillusioned youth” myth
Thread: “Busting the ‘disillusioned youth’ myth” This thread seeks to challenge a common and popular narrative which suggests declining youth registration and voting patterns is best attributed to disillusionment, as opposed to apathy.
Read the rest of this entry »13 February 2024
Election 2024 [11] Immediate takeaways from the latest SRF KZN poll
A thread: “Immediate takeaways from the latest SRF KZN poll”. This thread looks at the latest SRF market survey in KwaZulu-Natal, and some of the national and provincial implications that flow from MK’s performance in it.
Read the rest of this entry »26 January 2024
Election 2024 [8] What are the electoral politics of the Multi-Party Charter?
A thread: “What are the electoral politics of the MPC?” This thread looks at the electoral implications of the MPC, the political capital involved for each member, as well as the risks for smaller parties, when joining a coalition government.
Read the rest of this entry »24 January 2024
Election 2024 [7] What would happen if Rise Mzansi, the PA, BOSA and ASA achieved their election goals?
A thread: “What would happen if Rise Mzansi, the PA, BOSA and ASA achieved their election goals? This thread looks at the 2024 election predictions made by these parties, and what they would mean in real terms, if they ever came to pass.
Read the rest of this entry »18 January 2024
Election 2024 [6]: How did the EFF do so well in 2019?
A thread: “How did the EFF do so well in 2019?” This thread looks at the EFF, and its performance in the 2019 national and provincial elections – how it grew, where it grew and what factors drove its growth.
14 January 2024
Election 2024 [5]: Scenarios: Why it is so difficult to get the ANC below 50%
A thread: “Scenarios: Why it is so difficult to get the ANC below 50%”. This thread looks at approximately 500 national turnout scenarios, with a view to determining how easy or difficult it is the for ANC to get to 50% nationally.
Read the rest of this entry »4 January 2024
Election 2024 [3]: How the IFP survived Buthelezi’s disastrous leadership
A Thread: “How the IFP survived Buthelezi’s disastrous leadership”. This thread explores the IFP’s electoral record nationally and, in detail, in KZN , along with its decline under Buthelezi and small revival in 2019 (with nice graphs!)
Read the rest of this entry »1 January 2024
Election 2024 [1]: Why turnout is critical and its relationship to the ANC’s vote share
A thread: “Why turnout is such a critical factor” The following thread looks at turnout and its relationship to the ANC’s vote share, which I think is a critical factor ahead of the 2024 election, and not properly thought about.
Read the rest of this entry »1 January 2024
Election 2024 [2]: Why Gauteng is so important to the ANC
A thread: “Why Gauteng is so important to the ANC”. The following thread looks how central Gauteng is to the ANC’s 2024 national electoral prospects, and maps how dire the situation looks for the party provincially (with nice graphs!).
Read the rest of this entry »
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